For many small companies the busy season is the most predictable event of the year and still the one that surprises them most. The orders come in the same weeks as last year, but nobody looked at last year's numbers, two people are on holiday, stock runs out in the second week, and customers wait for answers that normally take an hour.
Planning does not need a forecasting model. It needs a look back, one number, a few decisions made early and a checklist with names. This article describes a version that fits a team of three to fifty people.
Find the peak in the data you already have
Do not rely on the feeling that "November is always crazy". Open the order list, invoices or support inbox for the last two or three years and count per week: orders, enquiries or jobs started. Put the weeks in one row and mark the highest ones.
Three things are worth writing down:
- When the peak starts and ends, in weeks, not months.
- How high it is compared with an ordinary week, for example 2.5 times the normal volume.
- What else rises with it: returns, questions about delivery, invoices, payment reminders. The peak usually moves through the company in a wave, not in one place.
If you have data for only one year, use it and say so in the plan. Next year the estimate will be better.
Turn the peak into one number
Take the expected volume of the busiest week and divide it by what the team handles in a normal week. If a normal week is 40 orders and the peak is 100, you need about 2.5 times the capacity, or you need to remove a part of the work. Our weekly capacity check shows how to measure the normal week in three numbers.
A single ratio is enough to start the conversation. It tells you whether the problem is small, where a few extra hours will do, or large, where something has to change.
Decide how to add capacity
There are only a few real options. Pick one or two per bottleneck and decide early:
- Overtime and shifted leave. Cheapest and fastest, but only for a few weeks and only with agreement. Working time limits apply; the UK government's guidance on weekly working hours is one example of the rules, and the limits in your own country may differ.
- Temporary or part-time help. Needs time for hiring and training, so decide at least six weeks ahead. Give the person a narrow, written task, for example packing or first-line email answers, not the whole job. If you use an agency, check the rights of agency workers that apply in your country.
- Stock and preparation. Order the best-selling items and materials early, prepare templates for common answers and pre-pack what can be packed.
- A narrower offer. Close the slowest products, shorten the range of delivery options or state longer delivery times on the site before customers ask. An honest long lead time is better than a missed short one.
Say who may decide each option and up to what cost, so the decision does not wait for the owner on the busiest day.
Plan holidays and absence
The peak is the worst moment for two people to be away at once. Agree on leave for the season at the start of the year, and keep at least one backup per key task. The article on covering holidays and absence describes how to write the notes that make this possible. Holiday rights are set by law in most countries; the UK's holiday entitlement rules are an example of what has to be respected.
Communicate before the season starts
Customers cope with delays if they know about them. Three messages are worth preparing in advance:
- To customers: last order date for guaranteed delivery, expected answer times and where to find status information.
- To suppliers: expected volumes and the dates when you will need delivery.
- To the team: the dates of the peak, who covers what and when the review will take place.
Put the main dates on the website or in an email footer a few weeks before the peak. If your content calendar allows it, add a short notice to the plan from the quarterly content plan.
A pre-season checklist
Use a table with three columns: task, owner and date. Start six weeks before the expected peak.
- 6 weeks: the numbers from last year are checked; the capacity ratio is written down; the decision on extra help is made.
- 5 weeks: temporary help is booked; the order for stock and materials is placed.
- 4 weeks: leave for the season is confirmed; backups per task are named.
- 3 weeks: prepared answers, templates and instructions for temporary staff are ready.
- 2 weeks: messages to customers and suppliers are sent; the website shows the key dates.
- 1 week: a short check: stock, access for temporary staff, equipment, payment and delivery systems.
- During the peak: a ten-minute check every morning on three numbers: orders waiting, answers overdue, stock of the top items.
Review after the season
Within two weeks after the peak, hold a 30-minute meeting. Ask four questions: what was the real peak against the estimate, where did work pile up, which decision helped and which one was late. Write five lines and save them next to the checklist. Next year you start from them instead of from memory.
